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  <front>
    <journal-meta>
      <journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">IJLTEMAS</journal-id>
      <journal-title-group>
        <journal-title>International Journal of Latest Technology in Engineering, Management &amp; Applied Science (IJLTEMAS)</journal-title>
        <abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">IJLTEMAS</abbrev-journal-title>
      </journal-title-group>
      <issn pub-type="epub">2278-2540</issn>
      <publisher>
        <publisher-name>IJLTEMAS</publisher-name>
      </publisher>
    </journal-meta>

    <article-meta>
      <!-- IDs -->
      <article-id pub-id-type="publisher-id">556</article-id>
            <article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.51583/IJLTEMAS.2026.151000037</article-id>
      
      <!-- Categories -->
            <article-categories>
        <subj-group subj-group-type="heading">
          <subject>Statistics</subject>
        </subj-group>
      </article-categories>
      
      <!-- Title -->
      <title-group>
        <article-title>Longitudinal Analysis of Goods Vehicle Traffic Composition in Great Britain Using Matched-Site Road Traffic Counts, 2000⁠–⁠2025</article-title>
      </title-group>

      <!-- Authors -->
      <contrib-group>
                <contrib contrib-type="author">
                    <name>
            <surname>Ekene Ogu</surname>
            <given-names>Reginald</given-names>
          </name>
                              <aff>
            Department of Computer Engineering, Federal University of Technology, Owerri, Nigeria                        <country>Nigeria</country>
                      </aff>
                    
        </contrib>
              </contrib-group>

      <!-- Volume / Issue / Pages -->
            <volume>15</volume>
                  <issue>10</issue>
                        <fpage>450</fpage>
            <lpage>460</lpage>
            
      <!-- Dates -->
      <history>
                <date date-type="received">
          <day>17</day>
          <month>10</month>
          <year>2026</year>
        </date>
                        <date date-type="accepted">
          <day>22</day>
          <month>10</month>
          <year>2026</year>
        </date>
              </history>

            <pub-date pub-type="epub">
        <day>02</day>
        <month>11</month>
        <year>2026</year>
      </pub-date>
      
      <!-- DOI Self-URI -->
            <self-uri xlink:href="https://doi.org/10.51583/IJLTEMAS.2026.151000037"/>
      
      <!-- Keywords -->
            <kwd-group kwd-group-type="author">
                <kwd>light goods vehicles; heavy goods vehicles; road freight; e-commerce; logistics technology</kwd>
              </kwd-group>
      
    </article-meta>
  </front>

  <!-- ============================================================ BODY (Abstract) -->
  <body>
        <sec>
      <title>Abstract</title>
      <p>Van traffic has been the fastest-growing part of Britain’s road traffic for two decades, and the usual explanation is e-commerce and last-mile delivery. This study tests that story against 5.27 million hourly manual counts from 43,401 sites (2000–2025). Chain-linked indices are built from sites counted in consecutive years, checked against a site fixed-effects model, and used to compare 2019 with 2025 at 2,575 sites counted in both years. Van flows rose 13% over that period while lorry flows fell 5%. The fall was concentrated in rigid lorries, down 16% across all road types, and in London, where lorry traffic fell 31%. Contrary to the last-mile account, van growth was strongest on motorways (+16%) and trunk A-roads (+12%) and weakest on minor roads (+2%). Segmented regression shows van growth slowing from 2.6% a year before the pandemic to under 1% after it, while lorries have declined about 2.7% a year since 2021. Within the lorry fleet, six-axle articulated vehicles grew from 14% of lorries counted in 2000 to 37% in 2025. The evidence points to a freight system splitting into smaller and larger vehicles, with vans increasingly doing inter-urban, not just doorstep, work.</p>
    </sec>
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