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ISSN 2278-2540 | DOI: 10.51583/IJLTEMAS | Volume XIII, Issue VII, July 2024

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Predictive Influence of Proposed Rural Grazing Area (RUGA) on

Communal Security in Ogun West Senatorial District, Nigeria

Abayomi Ogunsanwo & Atinuke Ayo-Balogun

Business Administration and Management, The Federal Polytechnic, Ilaro, Ogun State, Nigeria

DOI: https://doi.org/10.51583/IJLTEMAS.2024.130717

Received: 19 July 2024; Revised: 01 August 2024; Accepted: 05 August 2024; Published: 20 August 2024

Abstract

This study examines the predictive influence of the Nigerian government's Rural Grazing Area (RUGA) policy on communal

security in the Ogun West senatorial district. Despite RUGA's aim to mitigate herder-farmer conflicts by establishing designated

grazing areas, the policy faces significant opposition due to ethnic tensions, land use conflicts, and concerns about Fulani herder

dominance. Using a mixed-methods approach, data were collected from 500 respondents across five local government districts in

Ogun West. Quantitative analysis using regression models revealed that RUGA significantly impacts communal security (R =

0.728, R² = 0.530, p < 0.001), social harmony (B = 0.874, t = 25.537, p < 0.001), community engagement (B = 0.862, t = 29.741,

p < 0.001), and ethnocentric, religious, and socioeconomic issues (B = 0.869, t = 29.278, p < 0.001). However, the policy does

not significantly predict the readiness of nomads to settle (B = 0.032, p = 0.586) or the preparedness of local people to accept the

scheme (B = 0.051, p = 0.366). These findings indicate that while RUGA has the potential to enhance social and community

engagement outcomes, its success is hindered by the lack of readiness and acceptance among key stakeholders. The study

recommends increased engagement and sensitization efforts to enhance nomads' readiness and local acceptance, ensuring the

policy's successful implementation and contribution to inclusive economic development.

Key words: Predictive, Rural, Grazing, Communal and Security

I. Introduction

Nigeria's Rural Grazing Area (RUGA) initiative aims to put an end to farmer-herder conflicts by establishing designated grazing

zones, fostering peaceful coexistence, and improving communal security. However, due to ethnic tensions, land use conflicts, and

acceptability issues, this initiative has prompted concerns about its potential influence on community security in the Ogun West

senatorial district. To better comprehend the complexities and potential consequences of the proposed RUGA policy, this research

investigates its predictive influence on communal security in Ogun West.

Competition for land and resources, exacerbated by resource scarcity caused by climate change, feeds herder-farmer conflicts in

Nigeria, resulting in increased herder migration onto farmlands and subsequent confrontations (Ojo, 2023). The Nigerian

government's RUGA project aims to reduce these incidents by allocating certain grazing zones. However, local people are

opposed to the policy because they fear losing their customary lands and ethnic domination (Ademola, 2020). Because of its

ethnically diverse population and history of land conflicts, Ogun West provides a unique case study for examining the policy's

implications on community security. RUGA may lessen these disagreements by providing organised grazing areas; but, if it is not

implemented in an inclusive and transparent manner, tensions may rise. Research indicates that community engagement and

acceptability are crucial to the effectiveness of such strategies.

One main concern regarding RUGA is that it may exacerbate ethnic strife. Land use restrictions in Nigeria have always been seen

through the lens of political and ethnic power dynamics. Similar plans have frequently been rejected due to concerns about ethnic

supremacy and loss of land rights (Ejiofor, 2021). Implementing RUGA in Ogun West without adequate community engagement

or participation may worsen ethnic tensions and mistrust. Furthermore, the effectiveness with which the policy is executed

influences the community's overall security. Herder-farmer conflict resolution strategies must be integrated into a wider

framework that includes equitable resource distribution, community participation, and transparency (Amusan et al., 2017). If

these difficulties are not addressed, the plan may be viewed as merely another federal government mandate, resulting in criticism

and even hostility.

When assessing RUGA's impact on public safety, local communities' economic concerns must also be considered. The program's

purpose is to boost agricultural productivity by modernising cow raising practices. But it will only be effective if farmers and

herders adopt the new ways. Adequate teaching and help are critical to the policy's success (Olujide, 2011). Without this type of

support, RUGA's economic benefits may not materialise, which would fuel further instability and hostility.

The resistance to RUGA originates from negative previous experiences with similar rules. New government initiatives are likely

to be regarded with suspicion by communities that have suffered bad consequences from previous interventions. For example,

when local communities were excluded from the development and implementation of RUGA in Benue state, there was

widespread dissent and disturbance (Ojo, 2023). This highlights the importance of implementing inclusive and participatory

policies to obtain community support.

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The policy's impact on environmental sustainability and land use is also significant. Grazing tactics in Ogun West have increased

environmental issues and soil deterioration (Lawal-Adebowale et al., 2018). To alleviate these concerns, RUGA must promote

sustainable grazing practices and make sure that grazing areas are not contributing to more land degradation. However, the

RUGA approach has the potential to significantly affect Ogun West's communal security. Its success depends on community

acceptance, successful implementation, and the resolution of racial and socioeconomic issues. To achieve its goals, RUGA must

prioritize sustainable land use practices, equitable resource distribution, and community participation. If these concerns are not

handled, there may be more disagreements and a deterioration in communal security in the region.

II. Statement of Research Problem

The Nigerian government's implementation of the Rural Grazing Area (RUGA) program, which aims to establish designated

grazing areas as a means of resolving ongoing herder-farmer disputes, has been met with strong opposition and controversy,

particularly in the Ogun West senatorial district. Ethnic conflicts, previous land usage issues, and concerns about Fulani herders'

political and economic domination are all key contributors to the resistance. The government expects that RUGA would promote

community security and create peaceful coexistence, but the policy's implementation has been fraught with issues that may

exacerbate rather than lessen tensions between communities.

The key concern is the potential for increased conflicts over resources and land, ethnic distrust, and a lack of community

involvement. According to research, political and ethnic power dynamics typically impact how policies like RUGA are

interpreted, resulting in widespread criticism and rejection of these measures by the local population (Ademola, 2020). The

implementation of RUGA without adequate engagement and participation from all stakeholders may intensify ethnic tensions and

culminate in violent confrontations in Ogun West, a region noted for its ethnic diversity and long history of land conflicts.

Furthermore, there is a significant link between the policy's economic implications in adjacent communities and its impact on

community security. Farmers and herders must embrace revolutionary grazing ways for RUGA to be successful, despite

widespread pessimism about the program's potential economic benefits. According to studies, the financial benefits of RUGA will

not materialise in the absence of adequate training, direction, and equitable resource distribution, aggravating discontent and

potential conflicts (Ogunlade et al., 2020).

Furthermore, the historical context of Nigerian land use rules shows that policy failures and heightened conflict are typically the

result of a failure to address past grievances and provide fair implementation procedures. For example, in Benue state, significant

opposition and violence arose as a result of the locals' separation from the creation and implementation of RUGA (Ojo, 2023).

This highlights the need to implement policies via participatory techniques to garner community support and buy-in.

Thus, the goal of this research is to determine if the proposed RUGA policy would have a predictive influence on community

security in the senatorial district of Ogun West. The research attempts to look into the root reasons of community opposition, the

policy's potential economic implications, and how inclusive and open policy execution might reduce the possibility of increasing

conflicts. Through an examination of these aspects, the study hopes to provide insight on the efficacy and potential repercussions

of the RUGA approach in promoting peaceful coexistence and community security in Ogun West.

Objectives of the Study

The main objective of the study is to determine the predictive influence of the government proposed Rural Grazing Area (RUGA)

on communal security in Ogun West senatorial district of Nigeria; while the specific objectives were to:

 ascertain the readiness and willingness of nomads to be settled and sedentarized in RUGA.

 examine the preparedness of Ogun West Senatorial District people to accept an participate in RUGA scheme.

 evaluate the impact of RUGA on social harmony in Ogun West Senatorial District

 assess the influence of RUGA on community engagement in Ogun West Senatorial District

 evaluate the impact RUGA scheme on ethnocentric, religious, and social economic issues in Ogun West Senatorial

District.

The hypotheses of the study:

 H

: There is no indication of the nomads' readiness to be settled and sedentarized in the RUGA.

 H

: There is no indication of the acceptance of RUGA scheme implementation by the people of Ogun West Senatorial

District.

 H

: There is no significant impact of RUGA on social harmony in Ogun West Senatorial District

 H

: There is no significant influence of RUGA on community engagement in Ogun West Senatorial District.

 H

: There is no significant impact of RUGA scheme on ethnocentric, religion, and social economic issues in Ogun

West Senatorial District.

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III. Literature Review

Conceptual Review

Nigeria's proposed Rural Grazing Area (RUGA) program aims to reduce conflicts between herders and farmers by establishing

specified grazing zones. This initiative aims to minimize violence, enhance agricultural productivity, and improve community

safety. The implementation of this program has raised significant concerns about its potential impact on communal security,

particularly in diverse and historically problematic regions like Ogun West. To predict how the RUGA policy would affect

communal security in this area, it is critical to understand specific structures and concepts, which are discussed in this study.

Herder-Farmer Conflicts

Competition for resources and land, exacerbated by population growth and climate change, is the primary cause of herder-farmer

clashes in Nigeria. These disputes frequently result in violence, evictions, and the loss of livelihoods. By designating designated

grazing areas, the RUGA plan hopes to alleviate these issues by reducing herder mobility and the resulting disputes with farmers.

However, the acceptance of such measures by local communities, as well as the resolution of underlying ethnic and resource

allocation problems, influence the effectiveness of these strategies. (Ojo, 2023)

Ethnic Tensions and Historical Grievances

Ethnic tensions have been a key source of criticism of the RUGA plan. Policies seen to benefit one community over another are

frequently opposed owing to past grievances and fears of ethnic dominance. These conflicts are particularly visible in Ogun West

due to its diverse ethnic mix and past battles over land use and rights (Ejiofor, 2021). Understanding these processes is critical to

projecting how the policy will impact community security.

Community Acceptance and Participation

The acceptance and participation of the community is critical to the RUGA policy's efficacy. According to research, inclusive and

participatory approaches to policy development and implementation are critical for gaining community support and ensuring

long-term sustainability. Opposition and conflict usually undercut exclusionary policy aims (Ogunlade et al., 2020).

Economic Implications

The RUGA programme's aims are to modernise cow breeding procedures and increase agricultural production, which might have

a significant financial impact on both farmers and herders. Better lifestyles and economic stability in the area may arise from the

policy's successful implementation. However, for the policy to be effective, all parties must have sufficient resources, knowledge,

and support. (Ademola, 2020).

Policy Implementation Strategies

The successful execution of policies is crucial in attaining the intended results of the RUGA endeavor. This calls for inclusive and

open procedures, sufficient money, and the construction of the required facilities and services in the areas set aside for grazing. If

these issues are not resolved, the policy may be seen as just another one of the federal government's mandates, which might spark

opposition and hostilities (Agbakwuru & Awujo, 2020).

Environmental Sustainability

Another key factor to consider is how grazing practices influence the ecology. Unsustainable grazing may also cause other

ecological concerns, such as soil damage. To prevent further environmental degradation in designated locations, the RUGA

policy must promote sustainable grazing practices (Lawal-Adebowale et al., 2018).

Communal Security and Conflict Resolution

The primary goal of the RUGA approach is to enhance community safety by resolving conflicts between farmers and herders. To

attain this goal, effective dispute resolution methods are required. This includes addressing the underlying causes that contribute

to conflict, such as resource allocation and land rights, as well as implementing policies that promote peaceful coexistence and

understanding between farmers and herders. (Ojo, 2023)

Theoretical Review

Nigeria's proposed Rural Grazing Area (RUGA) program aims to reduce conflicts between herders and farmers by establishing

specified grazing zones. This initiative aims to minimize violence, enhance agricultural productivity, and improve community

safety. The implementation of this program has raised significant concerns about its potential impact on communal security,

particularly in diverse and historically problematic regions like Ogun West. According to Anthony Giddens' 1991 Ontological

Security Theory, a stable mental state is derived from a sense of continuity to life's events. It emphasizes the importance of

regular routines and stable environments in helping people maintain a coherent sense of self. The RUGA policy has an impact on

ontological security by changing traditional land use practices and interethnic interactions. Fears of losing ancestral lands and

upending power structures may lead communities in Ogun West to reject RUGA, jeopardising their sense of ontological security

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(Ejiofor, 2021). Eric Wolf established the political ecology theory in 1972, which examines the relationships between social,

political, and economic factors, as well as environmental changes and difficulties. It emphasises the ways that political and

economic power structures influence environmental policies. The RUGA strategy, which seeks to manage resources and land, is

inextricably intertwined with political and economic processes. Understanding Ogun West's political ecology makes it simpler to

analyse how power dynamics and economic interests impact community attitudes to policies.

Karl Marx proposed the concept of struggle in 1848. It maintains that competition for limited resources puts civilization in

continual strife. It brings attention to the disputes that occur among different social strata and groups. Conflict theory may be

utilised to examine the implementation of RUGA since it may exacerbate land competition between farmers and herders. If not

managed correctly, this rivalry may lead to other disagreements (Eme et al., 2014).

Thomas Homer-Dixon proposed the eco-violence hypothesis in 1999 to investigate how resource scarcity and environmental

degradation may lead to violent conflicts. It stresses how competition for scarce resources may lead to conflicts. The RUGA

method aims to address grazing land disputes, which are exacerbated by resource shortages and environmental deterioration. This

idea contributes to an understanding of how ecological factors impact herder-farmer conflicts in the Ogun West (Ojong et al.,

2021). According to modernization theory, developed by Walt Rostow in 1960 and Max Weber in 1905, civilizations progress

through a series of stages as they expand and evolve, resulting in both social and economic transformation. It typically predicts

that more modern, successful procedures will replace traditional ones. The RUGA policy aims to bring pastoral practices up to

current. To understand the resistance to RUGA, one must examine how modernization attempts may disrupt traditional ways of

life and produce community tensions and conflicts (Melson & Wolpe, 1970).

According to the frustration-aggression hypothesis, which was developed in 1939 by John Dollard, Neal Miller, Leonard Doob,

O. H. Mowrer, and Robert Sears, violence frequently results from anything impeding or irritating an individual's attempts to

accomplish a goal. If local communities' demands and objectives are not sufficiently met by the RUGA policy, they may become

frustrated and engage in violent opposition and conflict (Adekeye et al., 2022). The theoretical frameworks that are being

explored offer a thorough comprehension of the several aspects that affect how the RUGA strategy is expected to affect

community security in Ogun West. Using these ideas, we may more effectively assess the potential outcomes and obstacles of the

policy, highlighting the need of inclusive, egalitarian, and environmentally sustainable means for resolving conflicts and

supporting community progress.

Empirical Review

In Nigeria, the Rural Grazing Area (RUGA) policy was introduced to decrease herder-farmer conflicts. Many studies have looked

into the program's impact on community security. This report summarises empirical research conducted in 2017 and examines

numerous facets of the RUGA policy and its consequences. Ademola (2020) investigated the causes of diverse Nigerian

communities' rejection of RUGA using qualitative approaches such as document analysis and interviews in "Herder-Farmer

Conflicts and RUGA Policy". The investigation found that the major reasons for resistance to the approach were worries of Fulani

herder domination and ethnic distrust. The findings underline the need to develop inclusive and transparent strategies to eliminate

ethnic prejudice and foster communal harmony. Ojo (2023) conducted "Migratory Pastoralism, Herders-Farmers Conflicts, and

the Ruga Settlement Policy in North Central Nigeria" using a mixed-methods approach that included surveys and focus group

talks. The study discovered that because host communities were not included in the decision-making process, there was

widespread opposition to the unilateral implementation of RUGA. Because of this exclusion, mistrust, and resistance grew,

emphasizing the importance of participatory techniques in policy implementation to promote acceptance and efficacy.

Agbakwuru and Awujo (2020) conducted a descriptive analysis across many geopolitical zones in Nigeria for their work "Ruga

Policy and National Integration: Implications for Guidance And Counselling." The study, which included a comprehensive

questionnaire, found that RUGA worsened ethnic tensions. To achieve national unity, the authors proposed discontinuing the

RUGA policy and instituting more inclusive policies (Agbakwuru & Awujo, 2020). Ojo (2023) employed quantitative methods

with a sample of 385 respondents in Benue State for "Climate-related Armed Conflict and Communities' Resistance to Rural

Grazing Area Settlement Policy in Nigeria's Middlebelt." The study showed that a key source of opposition was the local

population's separation from the RUGA policy formulation process. Opposition was discovered to be largely motivated by

aspects such as a lack of policy understanding and a fear of losing ancestral lands. Ejiofor (2021) used the ontological security

theoretical framework in "The Fear of Ethnic Domination: Explaining the Persistence of Natural Resource Conflicts in Nigeria"

to investigate the continuous nature. Based on qualitative data, the study concluded that historical prejudices and ethnic concerns

were significant barriers to RUGA's acceptance, resulting in its suspension. The findings emphasised the need for methods that

address ethnic fears and promote cooperative security-seek.

Ebisi and Olisa's 2020 study, "RUGA" The Socio-Cultural Implications in the South East Region," used qualitative research to

analyse the socio-cultural consequences of RUGA in Nigeria's South East. According to the study, the plan was perceived as an

imposition by the federal government, which exacerbated ethnic tensions. The proposals included the establishment of extensive

community awareness activities as well as all-inclusive policy efforts. Ojong et al. (2021) conducted research in Cross River State

with 400 participants titled "Ethno-communal Crisis and its Implications on Food Security and Business Activities in Nigeria".

The study found that ethno-communal disputes had a significant impact on food security and business activities. To resolve

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disagreements successfully, the authors proposed establishing boundaries and engaging with traditional rulers (Ojong et al.,

2021).

Idoko and Teru (2021) utilised descriptive and exploratory methodologies in "Effective Management of Communal Crises and the

Achievement of Food Security in Nigeria: A Study of the Tiv-Jukun Crises in Taraba State" to investigate the link between

communal crises and food security. The research recommended comprehensive examinations of food programmes and national

integration measures, noting that socioeconomic and political factors had a significant role. Badiora (2019) explored community

support for vigilantism in Lagos using a case study technique in "Shaping Community Support for Vigilantism: A Nigerian Case

Study". According to the findings, community values and procedural justice have a significant influence on people's support for

vigilante outfits. The findings suggest that legitimacy-building policing strategies may boost community support and satisfaction

with non-state security providers.

Adigun (2023) employed cluster analysis in "Communal Violence in Nigeria, 2014-21: Mapping, Modelling, and Trends" to

study the causes of communal violence using data from a variety of sources. The study revealed that, while climate vulnerability

was the least important predictor, ethno-religious polarisation was a significant one. According to the findings, targeted

interventions are required to address the underlying causes of community violence. When considered together, these studies

provide a comprehensive understanding of the RUGA programme's many implications on Nigerian community security. The

overall theme of these results is the crucial need for inclusive, transparent, and participatory approaches in the formulation and

execution of policies to address the socio-cultural dynamics, economic repercussions, and underlying ethnic tensions that

determine community reactions. The empirical evidence stresses the need to resolve previous grievances and ensure that

resources are allocated equitably to maintain security and peace in places where herder-farmer conflicts are common.

IV. Methodology

This study employed a mixed-methods approach to examine the possible predictive influence of the proposed Rural Grazing Area

(RUGA) policy on community security in Nigeria's senatorial district of Ogun West. It achieved this by integrating quantitative

and qualitative research methods. A mixed-methods approach was used to better understand the complex dynamics at work and to

capitalise on the benefits of both quantitative and qualitative data. The study focused on the five local government districts of

Nigeria's Ogun West senatorial district: Ado-Odo/Ota, Yewa North, Yewa South, Imeko Afon, and Ipokia. This region was

chosen as a significant site to analyse the impacts of the RUGA strategy because of its history of land-related disputes and various

ethnic

The Ogun West senatorial district's target population included farmers, herders, local leaders, and community members. The

sample was chosen using a multistage sampling technique. The five local government districts were first stratified, and then

participants were picked at random from each district. With 100 respondents from each local government unit, a sample size of

500 was chosen to provide a representative sample and increase the validity and reliability of the findings. Quantitative data was

acquired using structured questionnaires. The questionnaire contained sections on demographic data, opinions on RUGA policy,

community conflict resolution experiences, and community security measures. A pilot study was conducted to assess the

questionnaire's validity and reliability. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with key informants including farmers,

herders, local officials, and community representatives. The goal of these interviews was to gather extensive qualitative data

regarding people's attitudes and experiences with the RUGA policy and how it impacts community security. Interview standards

were developed to ensure uniformity while allowing respondents to express themselves freely. Focus Group Discussions (FGDs)

were organised to elicit the perspectives and experiences of a sample of community people. A moderator guided the discussions

during each FGD, which included eight to ten participants and followed a pre-written discussion guide. To provide context and

supplement the original data, relevant secondary data was acquired from scholarly publications, government papers, and media

sites.

Descriptive and inferential statistics were employed to evaluate the quantitative data from the questionnaire. The data were

analysed using descriptive statistics such as means, frequencies, percentages, and standard deviations. To study relationships and

test ideas, inferential statistics such as regression analysis and correlation were utilised. Thematic analysis was used to evaluate

the transcribed qualitative data from interviews. Coding the data was necessary to identify key themes and trends related to

RUGA policy and communal security. To gain a complete understanding of the study's concerns, the qualitative data conclusions

were integrated with the quantitative results. The rights and welfare of study participants were safeguarded with respect to ethical

guidelines. All participants provided informed permission after being assured of their anonymity and confidentiality. Participants

were informed that they might exit the study at any time without penalty. The study sought and got clearance from the appropriate

ethical review boards. Study Restrictions The study may have limitations since it relies on self-reported data, which is prone to

bias. The intricacy of communal disputes, as well as the influence of other variables, may make it impossible to isolate the

specific effects of the RUGA technique. To address these limits, the study will use data triangulation and techniques to increase

the robustness and credibility of the findings. Using this method, the study seeks to provide stakeholders and policymakers with a

full understanding of the RUGA policy's predictive influence on community security in the Ogun West senatorial district, as well

as relevant information.

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V. Results and interpretation

Table 1: Reliability

Reliability Statistics

Cronbach's

Alpha

N of Items

.716

Cronbach's Alpha was used to assess the instrument's reliability in this study. Cronbach's Alpha for the 24 survey items was

0.716. When the Cronbach's Alpha score of an instrument exceeds 0.7, it is considered reliable, and its items have a reasonably

high level of internal consistency.

Table 2: Component Factor Analysis (Validity Statistics)

Total Variance Explained

Component

Initial Eigenvalues

Extraction Sums of Squared Loadings

Total

% of Variance

Cumulative %

Total

% of Variance

Cumulative %

4.579

19.079

4.579

19.079

4.112

17.134

36.213

4.112

17.134

36.213

3.618

15.077

51.290

3.618

15.077

51.290

2.748

11.450

62.741

2.748

11.450

62.741

2.230

9.293

72.034

2.230

9.293

72.034

1.993

8.303

80.337

1.993

8.303

80.337

1.575

6.562

86.899

Extraction Method: Principal Component Analysis.

a. When components are correlated, sums of squared loadings cannot be added to obtain a total variance.

The Table displays the primary component analysis results, which account for the total variance. The top seven components

account for 86.899% of the total variance. This high cumulative variance indicates that the instrument's construct validity is

robust, and that these components account for a significant portion of the variation in the data.

Model 1

Table 3: Model Summary (Overall Communal Security)

Model Summary

Model

R Square

Adjusted R

Square

Std. Error of

the Estimate

.728

.530

.528

4.44021

a. Predictors: (Constant), RUGA

The model summary shows a R value of 0.728, R Square of 0.530, and Adjusted R Square of 0.528. This suggests that the

independent variable (RUGA) can explain 53% of the variance in community security.

Table 4: ANOVA (Overall Communal Security)

ANOVA

Model

Sum of Squares

Mean Square

Sig.

Regression

6619.378

335.745

.000

Residual

5875.218

298

19.715

Total

12494.597

299

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a. Dependent Variable: COMSC

b. Predictors: (Constant), RUGA

With a significance (Sig) value of 0.000, the F value is 335.745. RUGA significantly predicts community security, as indicated by

the model's statistical significance (Sig value <0.05).

Table 5: Coefficients (Overall Communal Security)

Coefficients

Model

Unstandardized Coefficients

Standardized

Coefficients

Sig.

Std. Error

Beta

(Constant)

22.792

1.599

14.258

.000

RUGA

2.689

.147

.728

18.323

.000

a. Dependent Variable: COMSC

The t-value is 18.323, and the significance (Sig) value is 0.000. The unstandardized coefficient (B) for RUGA is 2.689. Given

that the Sig value is smaller than 0.05, the predictor (RUGA) is statistically significant in predicting community security.

Model 2

Table 6: Coefficients (Objective 1 - Readiness of Nomads)

Coefficients

Model

Unstandardized Coefficients

Standardized

Coefficients

Sig.

Std. Error

Beta

(Constant)

9.728

.648

15.006

.000

RUGA

.032

.060

.032

.545

.586

a. Dependent Variable: RADN

The t-value is 0.545 and the significance (Sig) value is 0.586, indicating that the unstandardized coefficient (B) for RUGA is

0.032. Because the Sig value is greater than 0.05, the predictor (RUGA) is not statistically significant in predicting nomads' level

of preparation.

: The nomads don't appear ready to settle down in the RUGA permanently. Given that Table 6's p-value is larger than 0.05

(0.586), the null hypothesis cannot be ruled out. Therefore, there isn't any solid proof that the nomads are ready to settle down

permanently in the RUGA.

Model 3

Table 7: Coefficients (Objective 2 - Preparedness of Local People)

Coefficients

Model

Unstandardized Coefficients

Standardized

Coefficients

Sig.

Std. Error

Beta

(Constant)

9.745

.614

15.880

.000

RUGA

.051

.056

.052

.906

.366

a. Dependent Variable: PRAC

Using a t-value of 0.906 and a significance (Sig) value of 0.366, the unstandardized coefficient (B) for RUGA is 0.051. In terms

of forecasting the level of preparation among the local population, the predictor (RUGA) is not statistically significant because

the Sig value is bigger than 0.05.

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: There's no sign that the residents of Ogun West Senatorial District are in favour of the RUGA scheme's implementation. The

null hypothesis is not successfully rejected since the p-value of 0.366 from Table 7 is larger than 0.05. Thus, there's no real

evidence that the residents of Ogun West Senatorial District are in favour of the RUGA scheme's adoption.

Model 4

Table 8: Coefficients (Objective 3 - Social Harmony)

Coefficients

Model

Unstandardized Coefficients

Standardized

Coefficients

Sig.

Std. Error

Beta

(Constant)

.512

.373

1.374

.171

RUGA

.874

.034

.828

25.537

.000

a. Dependent Variable: SCHY

With a t-value of 25.537 and a significance (Sig) value of 0.000, the unstandardized coefficient (B) for RUGA is 0.874. In

predicting social harmony, the predictor (RUGA) is statistically significant as the Sig value is smaller than 0.05.

HO3: In the Ogun West Senatorial District, RUGA has no appreciable effect on social peace. The null hypothesis is rejected

based on Table 8's p-value of 0.000, which is less than 0.05. Thus, in the Ogun West Senatorial District, RUGA has a major effect

on societal cohesion.

Model 5

Table 9: Coefficients (Objective 4 - Community Engagement)

Coefficients

Model

Unstandardized Coefficients

Standardized

Coefficients

Sig.

Std. Error

Beta

(Constant)

1.452

.316

4.598

.000

RUGA

.862

.029

.865

29.741

.000

a. Dependent Variable: COME

The unstandardized coefficient (B) for RUGA is 0.862, with a t-value of 29.741 and a significance level (Sig) of 0.000. Because

the Sig value is smaller than 0.05, the predictor (RUGA) is statistically significant for predicting community participation.

HO4: RUGA has no substantial effect on community involvement in the Ogun West Senatorial District. Based on the p-value of

0.000 in Table 9, which is less than 0.05, we reject the null hypothesis. Thus, RUGA has a huge impact on community

involvement in the Ogun West Senatorial District.

Model 6

Table 10: Coefficients (Objective 5 - Ethnocentric, Religious, and Socio-economic Issues)

Coefficients

Model

Unstandardized Coefficients

Standardized

Coefficients

Sig.

Std. Error

Beta

(Constant)

1.355

.323

4.191

.000

RUGA

.869

.030

.861

29.278

.000

a. Dependent Variable: ERSE

The unstandardized coefficient (B) for RUGA is 0.869, with a t-value of 29.278 and a significance level (Sig) of 0.000. Because

the Sig value is smaller than 0.05, the predictor (RUGA) is statistically significant in predicting ethnocentricity, religion, and

socioeconomic status.

INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF LATEST TECHNOLOGY IN ENGINEERING,

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HO5: RUGA has no substantial influence on ethnic, religious, or socioeconomic concerns in the Ogun West Senatorial District.

Based on the p-value of 0.000 in Table 10, which is less than 0.05, we reject the null hypothesis. RUGA has a substantial effect

on ethnocentric, religious, and socioeconomic concerns in the Ogun West Senatorial District.

VI. Discussion of findings

The findings of the validity and reliability tests show that the instrument used in the study is valid and reliable. The regression

analysis shows that the adoption of the RUGA plan has a considerable influence on the economic, religious, and ethnocentric

issues of the Ogun West Senatorial District. It has no discernible effect on the nomads' desire to settle down or the indigenous

people' readiness to adopt the idea. These imply that caution must be taken in the implementation of RUGA because it may be a

recipe for national disaster since the two (2) main stakeholders (i.e. Herders and Local Farmers) are not ready to adopt the RUGA

policy.

VII. Conclusion

According to the study's findings, the Ogun West Senatorial District's RUGA plan has a significant influence on socioeconomic,

ethnocentric, and religious issues, as well as social cohesion and community engagement. However, neither the villagers nor the

nomads appear to be fully prepared to embrace the proposal. The implementation of RUGA may fail if the local populace does

not support it and the nomads are unprepared. This meant that RUGA implementation would have to be postponed until

additional engagement and sensitization initiatives were carried out to strengthen nomads' readiness to settle in RUGA.

Additionally, efforts to improve local understanding and acceptance of the RUGA system should be increased.

VIII. Recommendations

 To strengthen nomads' readiness to settle in RUGA, further engagement and sensitization initiatives should be carried

out.

 More should be done to increase villagers' awareness and acceptance of the RUGA system.

 For Social Harmony: Given how much RUGA fosters social harmony, the programme must be maintained and expanded

in order to strengthen social cohesion.

 Given RUGA's significant influence on community participation, more should be done to involve the community in the

scheme's design and implementation.

 Given the enormous effect that RUGA has on these subjects, measures must be taken to correct any adverse views and

ensure that the scheme promotes inclusivity and economic development for all stakeholders.

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