INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF LATEST TECHNOLOGY IN ENGINEERING,
MANAGEMENT & APPLIED SCIENCE (IJLTEMAS)
ISSN 2278-2540 | DOI: 10.51583/IJLTEMAS | Volume XIII, Issue IX, September 2024
www.ijltemas.in Page 86
Enhancing Electricity Demand Forecasting Accuracy Through
Hybrid Models and Deep Learning Techniques: A Systematic
Literature Review
Abigail Mba Dabuoh
1
, Atta Yaw Agyeman
2
, Samuel Gbli Tetteh
2
1
Department of Computer Science and Informatics, University of Energy and Natural Resources Sunyani, Ghana
2
D Jarvis College of Computing and Digital Media, DePaul University, Chicago, USA
DOI: https://doi.org/10.51583/IJLTEMAS.2024.130908
Received: 16 July 2024; Accepted: 29 July 2024; Published: 05 October 2024
Abstract: This reviewed literature on electricity forecasting covers its history, terminology, and techniques. A systematic review
of existing studies highlighted key findings and future research opportunities. Conventional statistical techniques and MLA can
predict electricity demand over time with various techniques and forecasting windows tailored to data and problem specifics.
Most studies focused on STLF, often without testing techniques on MTLF and LTLF. The key findings include:
Many studies (26%) used conventional statistical methods like ARIMA, ARIMAX, and SARIMAX for electricity forecasting,
often without benchmarking algorithms. Various factors, such as time, weather, electricity price, population, and economy,
influence ELF. Weather parameters were the most commonly used predictors, though performance varied across studies. A global
increase in electricity demand has driven numerous studies, though less research has been done in low- and middle-income
countries. Deep neural networks like LSTM have been underutilised in electricity forecasting. LSTM's ability to store memory
and address the vanishing gradient problem makes it promising for future research, particularly in hybrid models combining CNN
and LSTM for forecasting peak load demand based on economic and environmental factors.
I. Introduction
The review provides a concise overview of electricity load forecasting (ELF). It covers the fundamental concepts, various types
of load forecasting, and the factors that influence electricity demand forecasting. Additionally, it reviews relevant machine
learning algorithms and related studies, concluding with a chapter summary. Electricity Demand - Global electricity consumption
has surged more rapidly than overall energy usage in recent years. From 1980 to 2013, annual global electricity consumption rose
from 7,300 TWh to 22,100 TWh. In the 21st century, the growth rate of electricity consumption has averaged 3.4% per year,
outpacing the 2.2% annual increase in overall energy consumption (Liu, 2015). According to the IEA’s Electricity Market Report,
global electricity demand, which declined by about 1% in 2020 due to the Covid-19 pandemic, was expected to grow by nearly
5% in 2021 and 4% in 2022, driven by economic recovery. Developing regions in Asia and Central and South America have seen
particularly rapid increases in electricity consumption.
In Ghana, the history of the power industry dates back to the colonial era, when energy was primarily supplied by isolated diesel
generators owned by industries, municipalities, and institutions like hospitals and schools (Kumi, 2017). Despite significant
increases in installed generation capacity from 1,730 MW in 2006 to 3,795 MW in 2016, Ghana has faced persistent energy
supply issues, resulting in an average daily economic loss of US $2.1 million. During this period, peak power consumption grew
by 50%, from 1,393 MW to 2,087 MW. The National Electrification Scheme (NES), launched in 1990, has significantly
increased electricity access, which rose from 15-20% in 1990 to 82.5% in 2016. However, Ghana may miss its goal of universal
access by 2020 by 5% unless the electrification rate increases.
Ghana's Electricity Demand and Supply Nexus - From 2006 to 2016, Ghana's peak electricity demand grew by 49.8%, from 1,393
MW to 2,087 MW, averaging an annual increase of 4.29% (Energy Commission of Ghana, 2016a; VRA, 2015; Energy
Commission of Ghana, 2017, cited by Kumi, 2017). Over the same period, generation capacity more than doubled, with an
average annual increase of 8.60%, rising from 1,730 MW to 3,759 MW. Despite this, power shortages have persisted due to
various challenges.
Ghana's gross electricity consumption fluctuated from 9,059 GWh in 2006 to 7,413 GWh in 2007 before increasing by an average
of 10.8% annually until 2014. This trend reversed with an 11.3% decline from 2014 to 2015, followed by a 15.3% rise in 2016
(Energy Commission of Ghana, 2016a; Energy Commission of Ghana, 2017, cited by Kumi, 2017).
Accurate power forecasting is crucial for effective energy resource planning and management, as it directly impacts a country's
economic activities (Hadjout et al., 2021).
Brief History of Electricity Load Forecasting (ELF): ELF involves predicting future load requirements to make informed
system expansion decisions. The concept dates back to 1965 (Heinemann and Nordmian, cited by Yang et al., 2019) and has since
evolved, yielding increasingly accurate results. ELF underpins system expansion and tariff decisions.
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Basic Concept of ELF: An electricity demand forecast model typically involves setting a learning objective, collecting and
partitioning data into training and testing sets, selecting a suitable machine learning algorithm (MLA), and evaluating the model's
performance using metrics such as RMSE, MAPE, and correlation coefficient. The predicted output is compared to the desired
output to assess the model's accuracy.
Factors Influencing ELF: Several factors influence system load behavior, necessitating a thorough understanding for accurate
forecasting. These factors include:
Weather: Parameters like temperature, humidity, and wind speed affect electrical appliance usage.
Time and Day: Load variations depend on the time of day, holidays, weekdays/weekends, and seasons.
Economic: Factors like industrialization, load management policies, and electricity pricing significantly impact load trends.
Random Disturbance: Unexpected events, such as industrial shutdowns or special events like football matches, cause load
variations.
Customer Category: Load factors vary for residential, commercial, and industrial customers, influenced by production levels,
population growth, and other demographic factors.
These factors are detailed in studies by Charytoniuk et al. (1998), Hassan et al. (2014), Mengying et al. (2019), Ruzic et al.
(2003), and Zivanovic (2002)
Table 1: Common Evaluation Metrics for Electric Load Demand Forecasters
Abbreviation
Evaluation Metric
Definition
RMSE
Root Mean Squared Error
MAE
Mean Absolute Error
MAPE
Mean Absolute Percentage Error
NS
Nash-Sutcliffe Coefficient Radius
RPD
Relative Percentage Difference
AUC
Area Under the Curve
NMSE
Normalised Mean Squared Error
MSPE
Mean Squared Prediction Error
RMSEP
Root Mean Square Prediction Error
MBE
Mean Bias Error
R
Correlation Coefficient
Accuracy
Precision
PRE=TP/(TP+FP)
Recall
REC=TP/(TP+FN)
MedAE
Median Absolute Error
MedAE(y,y
)=median(
Types of ELF: Electricity demand forecasting (ELF) can be categorized by the techniques used or the forecasting duration. This
section elaborates on these categories in detail.
ELF Types Based on Forecasting Intervals (Lead Time) {ELF can be divided into very short-term, short-term, medium-term, and
long-term forecasts based on the forecasting intervals, also known as lead time. Table 2.2 summarizes the types of load
forecasting and their applications, as detailed in works by Kuster et al. (2017), Nti et al. (2019), and Nti et al. (2020).
Table 2: Summary of Load Forecasting Types
Nature of
Forecast
Lead Time
Application
Very short-term
Seconds to minutes
Generation, distribution schedules, and contingency analysis for
system security
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Short-term
Half an hour to a few
hours
Distribution of spinning reserve, operational planning, unit
commitment, maintenance schedule
Medium-term
A few days to weeks
Seasonal peak planning (winter, summer)
Long-term
Months to years
Generation growth planning
Problems in Short-Term Load Forecasting (STLF): There are several issues encountered in STLF, which are discussed below:
1. Input-Output Relationship: Most STLF methods use an artificial neural network (ANN) structure to model the input-
output relationship. However, designing this network requires detailed prior knowledge. Incorrect network design can
lead to poor predictions. Identifying significant input variables is also challenging. Too many or too few variables can
reduce accuracy. Clustering and mode recognition tools can improve results by better representing system properties,
though they still require prior knowledge for effective clustering.
2. Expert Experience: Experienced personnel in power grids and load dispatch centers often outperform computer
forecasts. Thus, expert systems and fuzzy inference systems are used, but this requires transforming expert knowledge
into a rule database.
3. Anomalous Days: Predicting unusual load days, such as holidays or extreme weather days, is difficult due to their
differing load behavior. Using historical data from the past five years can help, but load growth may still cause
dissimilarities.
4. Weather Data: Weather significantly impacts forecasting accuracy. Despite advances in weather forecasting,
inaccuracies remain. Detailed weather data is often unavailable, which can lead to errors in load forecasting.
5. Training Problems: ANN-based load forecasting involves training and predicting with two data sets: training and
testing data. Overfitting can occur if the model performs well on training data but poorly on new data. Proper training
methods are needed to avoid this.
6. Reliability: Economic development often outpaces power investment, leading to energy shortages. Demand-side
management can disrupt natural load curves, complicating forecasting. Ensuring reliable data and removing noise is
essential for accurate forecasts.
Requirements of STLF: A sound STLF system should meet the following requirements (Dewari & Bhandari, 2015):
1. Accuracy: The primary requirement for STLF is accuracy, as it underpins economic dispatch, system reliability, and
electricity market trading.
2. Speed: The STLF program should utilize the latest historical and weather data to increase accuracy and reduce
computation time. Programs with long training times should be replaced with faster techniques that maintain accuracy.
3. Detection of Bad Data: Modern STLF systems should automatically detect and eliminate erroneous data, reducing the
burden on operators.
4. User-Friendliness: The load forecasting interface should be intuitive, allowing users to easily define forecasts and view
results both numerically and graphically.
5. Automatic Forecasting: To reduce the risk of inaccurate forecasts, STLF systems should automatically generate final
results based on past performance, without requiring operator intervention.
ELF Based on Techniques: ELF techniques can be broadly classified into three categories: correlation, extrapolation, and a
combination of both (Eeeguide.com, 2014; Nti et al., 2019).
Correlation Techniques: These relate system load to various economic and demographic factors, helping forecasters
understand the relationship between load growth and measurable factors.
Extrapolation Techniques: These include time-series or conventional methods that fit trend curves to historical data. The
forecast is obtained by evaluating the trend curve function at the desired future point.
No single forecasting method is universally applicable. ELF techniques are categorized into data-driven (AI) techniques and
engineering techniques, though there is no consensus on which is superior.
Machine Learning Algorithms: Machine learning (ML), a subset of artificial intelligence (AI), provides methods for solving
complex problems (Stanisavljevic & Spitzer, 2016). ML enables software and machines to learn from experience without explicit
programming. According to literature (Nti et al., 2019; Simeone, 2018; Stanisavljevic & Spitzer, 2016), ML algorithms can be
categorized into:
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Supervised Learning (SL): The algorithm learns from labeled data (training data) to build a model that predicts outcomes
for new data.
Unsupervised Learning (UL): The algorithm learns from unlabeled data to identify patterns and build models.
Semi-Supervised Learning (SSL): Combines aspects of supervised and unsupervised learning.
Reinforcement Learning (RL): The algorithm interacts with an environment to achieve a goal, learning from actions
without a teacher.
Examples of ML algorithms include General Regression Neural Network (GRNN), Support Vector Machine (SVM), Artificial
Neural Networks (ANN), and many others (Nti et al., 2021). Figure 2.2 illustrates ML algorithm classifications and examples.
A Systematic Review of Related Works:
This section provides a systematic review of studies on ELF. According to Keele (2007), a systematic literature review (SLR)
aims to identify, assess, and discuss relevant works to answer research questions. An SLR must be comprehensive and unbiased
to be scientifically valuable.
Kamilaris and Prenafeta-Boldú (2018) stated that SLR helps develop essential insights and identify potential research gaps. This
study adopts a 3-stage SLR process (Ardabili et al., 2020; Mosavi et al., 2019; Sharma et al., 2020)
1. Pre-Operational (Review Planning):
2. Operational (Conducting the Review):
3. Post-Operational (Review Findings):
The aim is to answer questions such as: What factors influence ELF? What ML algorithms are used for electricity demand
forecasting? What are the strengths and weaknesses of these algorithms? What timeframes and evaluation metrics are used in
ELF?
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II. Review Outcome
This section outlines the results of the SLR, highlighting key findings and gaps in the literature that justify the significance of this
study.
Year-wise and Publisher-wise Distribution of Articles
Recently, electricity demand forecasting has gained significant attention in both academia and industry. Table 6 illustrates the
yearly distribution of articles, showing a growing interest in electricity load forecasting over the years.
Figure 1 shows the distribution of articles by publisher, indicating that publishers like IEEE, Elsevier, and Springer recognize the
importance of studies in this field. IEEE had the highest number of publications, likely due to its focus on engineering works.
Analysis Based on Used Forecaster: presents the most commonly used forecasting techniques in electricity demand literature.
Seasonal ARIMA and ANN are the most popular classical methods for electricity load forecasting. The ARIMA model is favored
for its ability to handle seasonal components in LTLF, where variations are less frequent. ANN and SVM are prominent
computational intelligence techniques effective in modeling the non-linearity and complex relationships in electricity demand
influenced by economic and environmental factors. However, existing AI-based models mainly address VSTLF challenges, while
traditional statistical methods are static and rely on historical data (Bedi & Toshniwal, 2019).
Combining multiple forecasting techniques into hybrid models is believed to enhance accuracy. Hybrid models integrate various
ML algorithms to leverage their strengths. Studies like Ganguly et al. (2020), Haq & Ni (2019), Jarndal & Hamdan (2017), Rusli
et al. (2019), and Yildiz et al. (2017) demonstrate that hybrid techniques outperform individual models in electricity forecasting.
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Figure 2: Most Used Forecasters in Electricity Demand Forecasting: Deep neural networks, such as ANN (including BPNN and
CNN), have been less frequently used. Only a few studies have applied DBN (Dedinec et al., 2016; Haq & Ni, 2019) and LSTM
(Bedi & Toshniwal, 2019). PCA is widely used for dimensionality reduction (Aneiros et al., 2016; De Felice et al., 2015; Yildiz et
al., 2017), while ensemble learning techniques, believed to be superior to single learners, have also been adopted (de Oliveira &
Cyrino Oliveira, 2018; Divina et al., 2018; Pannakkong et al., 2018).
Despite the popularity of ARIMA and ANN, Pereira et al. (2015) found that the Fuzzy Inference System (FIS) performed better
than SARIMAX. Fu et al. (2015) reported that SVM outperformed ARIMAX, DT, and ANN. Conversely, Azad et al. (2018)
found that ANN optimized by the sine-cosine algorithm and GH outperformed SVM. These mixed findings suggest that the
choice of forecasting method depends on factors like data characteristics, task type (regression or classification), and forecasting
period.
Figure 3 highlights the evaluation metrics commonly used to validate forecasting performance in literature, with MAPE, RMSE,
and MAE being the most frequently used due to their suitability for regression analysis.
Figure 2.9: Commonly Used Evaluation Metrics
III. Summary of Analyzed Articles
Table 2.9 summarizes the analyzed articles. A significant proportion (56%) used correction techniques, 41% used extrapolation
techniques, and 3% combined both. The forecasting windows showed 55% used STLF, 18% VSTLF, 16% LTLF, and 11%
MTLF.
Of the 37 articles, 82% aimed to forecast future electricity demand using regression analysis, with few studies (5%) adopting
classification techniques, and 13% using clustering methods. The origin of the analyzed articles showed 15% from Australia, 12%
from India, and 7% each from Thailand, China, and Italy.
Figure 2.7 summarizes the most common predictors for electricity demand. Various factors like time, day, temperature, weather,
and economic conditions influence ELF. Weather parameters, especially temperature, were the most frequently used predictors
for STLF, MTLF, and LTLF. Studies often used historical load demand and weather variables (temperature, humidity,
precipitation, and solar gain) as predictors. Economic variables and historical load demand were also commonly used, reflecting
the interconnected nature of electricity consumption with human activities, population, and economic status.
The significance of diverse forecasting methodologies and their applications has been highlighted by this systematic assessment
of the literature, which delves into the changing landscape of energy demand forecasting. Many machine learning techniques,
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including ANN and SVM, as well as conventional statistical techniques like ARIMA, have been applied extensively and
demonstrated significant forecasting performance. However, these traditional approaches are unable to completely address the
continuous issues posed by the complexity and non-linearity of electricity consumption patterns.
According to the assessment, there is a growing interest in hybrid models, which mix several algorithms to take use of each one's
unique characteristics and increase predicting accuracy. Research employing hybrid methodologies has shown to perform better
than single-method approaches, indicating a promising avenue for further investigation. The article also emphasizes the
unrealized promise of deep learning methods, especially LSTM networks, which provide sophisticated capabilities in processing
sequential data and addressing problems such as the vanishing gradient problem.
The examined research identify crucial predictors like meteorological characteristics, economic indicators, and historical load
data, which are important elements determining electricity demand. The emphasis on obtaining accurate and trustworthy forecasts
is reflected in the widespread use of regression analysis and error metrics like MAPE, RMSE, and MAE for performance
validation.
The research identifies shortcomings in the application of contemporary forecasting approaches despite notable developments,
particularly in low- and middle-income nations. This emphasizes how more study is required to create reliable models that can be
applied in a variety of geographic and economic circumstances.
Conclusion, there is a great deal of potential for improving the precision and dependability of electricity demand projections
through the incorporation of deep learning methods and hybrid models. Subsequent investigations have to center on delving into
these sophisticated techniques, refining their implementation throughout various projection periods, and attending to the
particular requirements of marginalized areas. By doing this, the industry can get one step closer to creating all-inclusive
solutions that facilitate effective global energy planning and management.
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