Longitudinal Analysis of Goods Vehicle Traffic Composition in Great Britain Using Matched-Site Road Traffic Counts, 2000⁠–⁠2025

Van traffic has been the fastest-growing part of Britain’s road traffic for two decades, and the usual explanation is e-commerce and last-mile delivery. This study tests that story against 5.27 million hourly manual counts from 43,401 sites (2000–2025). Chain-linked indices are built from sites counted in consecutive years, checked against a site fixed-effects model, and used to compare 2019 with 2025 at 2,575 sites counted in both years. Van flows rose 13% over that period while lorry flows fell 5%. The fall was concentrated in rigid lorries, down 16% across all road types, and in London, where lorry traffic fell 31%. Contrary to the last-mile account, van growth was strongest on motorways (+16%) and trunk A-roads (+12%) and weakest on minor roads (+2%). Segmented regression shows van growth slowing from 2.6% a year before the pandemic to under 1% after it, while lorries have declined about 2.7% a year since 2021. Within the lorry fleet, six-axle articulated vehicles grew from 14% of lorries counted in 2000 to 37% in 2025. The evidence points to a freight system splitting into smaller and larger vehicles, with vans increasingly doing inter-urban, not just doorstep, work.

light goods vehicles; heavy goods vehicles; road freight; e-commerce; logistics technology

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